The Roundup with Jeff Stockton (Season 19 Golden Reel Awards Edition)

 

There were a lot of surprises in this season's batch of nominees, which should make predicting the winners pretty difficult.  For this awards-centric edition of The Roundup, I will go through each category and tell you who I think should win the award, who I think actually will win the award, and who I think has no chance to win - followed by a brief thought on the category this season. 

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Who Should Win: Poison Ivy
Who Will Win: Superman: The Last Son of Krypton
No Chance: Still Lives

Thought(s): Best Production Design is one of the categories where superhero movies actually have a good track record, and I feel the poster for Superman 2 is the best superhero poster yet - so it makes sense to bet on it to win. All that said, the poster for Poison Ivy is easily one of the best ever produced by studio, so I think it should win. Urban Cowboy could always pull an upset, but I don't see Still Lives having the same chances.

BEST SOUNDTRACK
Who Should Win: Poison Ivy
Who Will Win: Cecil
No Chance: N/A

Thought(s): Honestly, all four soundtracks here have a solid shot in my opinion. I think Cecil will win because of its more haunting tone, but I'd like it to go to Poison Ivy as its soundtrack just fits the world of the film so well (and has introduced me to Emile Hirsch's surprisingly strong pop music).

MOST WANTED SEQUEL
Who Should Win: Superman: The Last Son of Krypton
Who Will Win: Spider-Man
No Chance: Kazaria

Thought(s): This award almost always goes to an IP-based property, so that leaves Kazaria out of the mix. Spider-Man appears to have the momentum so it's probably a decent bet to win, but I really want to see what John Malone and Jeff Nichols have in mind for a third Superman film as they left the characters in very interesting places.

BEST ENSEMBLE CAST
Who Should Win: Cecil
Who Will Win: Klondike
No Chance: Spider-Man or Superman: The Last Son of Krypton

Thought(s): Klondike has the star power to win, but I loved the ensemble of Cecil where everyone completely disappeared into their roles.

BEST STARRING COUPLE
Who Should Win: Elle Fanning
Who Will Win: Kyle Chandler & Sydney Sweeney - Poison Ivy
No Chance: Alden Ehrenreich & Elizabeth Olsen - Urban Cowboy

Thought(s): Elle Fanning definitely should win for one of her Season 19 pairings, but it is very possible that Spider-Man and Klondike could cancel each other out, leaving an easier path for Chandler and Sweeney to win for Poison Ivy.

BEST VILLAIN
Who Should Win: Sydney Sweeney - Poison Ivy
Who Will Win: Sydney Sweeney - Poison Ivy
No Chance: Emile Hirsch - Chris, Travis & Juliet

Thought(s): Hirsch is definitely a big surprise as a nomination as the film was not especially strong, even though he was the highlight of the film. Reese Witherspoon garnered a similar surprising nomination last season. This award is definitely Sydney Sweeney's to lose. She made for the most alluring and entertaining femme fatale since Sharon Stone in Basic Instinct.

BEST ADAPTATION
Who Should Win: Poison Ivy or Kansas City
Who Will Win: Poison Ivy
No Chance: At the Mountains of Madness

Thought(s): This marks the only nomination for At the Mountains of Madness, and single nominees tend not to win major awards. I think Poison Ivy has the momentum, but I also really liked Chad Taylor's work on Kansas City.

BEST ORIGINAL STORY
Who Should Win: Cecil
Who Will Win: Klondike
No Chance: Shouts from the Well & Tokyo Rose

Thought(s): Shouts from the Well and Tokyo Rose also have their only nominations here in a writing category, so the same applies to them as At the Mountains of Madness. Klondike is a very award friendly film and the duo of Ellis & Malone have a strong track record. Personally though, Cecil was my favorite of the original films, so I'd like to see it take home the trophy.
 
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Who Should Win: Alexandra Daddario - Urban Cowboy
Who Will Win: Ana de Armas - Kansas City
No Chance: Joan Chen - Cecil

Thought(s): This one could go just about any direction, but I don't see Joan Chen winning as she has the smallest amount of screen time of any of the nominees here.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Who Should Win: Dan Stevens - Klondike
Who Will Win: Orlando Bloom - Kansas City
No Chance: Brad Pitt - An Eye For An Eye

Thought(s): I like Bloom's chances here, even though I think Stevens deserves it. I suspect Mendelsohn might steal a few votes from Stevens.
 

BEST ACTRESS
Who Should Win: Sydney Sweeney - Poison Ivy OR Awkwafina - Cecil
Who Will Win: Elle Fanning - Klondike
No Chance: Elizabeth Olsen - Urban Cowboy

Thought(s): Fanning has the star power and track record. For me, Sweeney or Awkwafina will have my vote though.

BEST ACTOR
Who Should Win: All are deserving
Who Will Win: Alden Ehrenreich - Urban Cowboy
No Chance: N/A

Thought(s): I feel like all four nominees have an equal shot at winning this one. The voters have a lot of love for Ehrenreich, so he's who I would bet my money on, but it really could go any way.

BEST DIRECTOR
Who Should Win: Nicolas Winding Refn - Cecil
Who Will Win: Nicolas Winding Refn - Cecil
No Chance: Damien Chazelle - Spider-Man

Thought(s): Cecil features Refn near the top of his game, and since he's already won the award twice, what's stopping him from a third victory?

BEST PICTURE
Who Should Win: Cecil
Who Will Win: Poison Ivy
No Chance: Kansas City

Thought(s): I'm going out on a limb and picking Poison Ivy to take home the big award. Call it a hunch. I probably liked Cecil slightly more, but it's less flashy.