For this awards-centric edition of The Roundup, I will go through each category and tell you who I think should win the award, who I think actually will win the award, and who I think has no chance to win - followed by a brief thought on the category this season.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Who Should Win: Captain America
Who Will Win: Caesar Part III
No Chance: Green Lantern Corps: Sinestro War
Thought(s): Captain America featured my favorite poster of the season, so that's where I think the award should go. That said, Caesar Part III very well could take the award as it probably will in many categories during the ceremony. Something and/or Nothing is a dark horse candidate though with this category being its only nomination.
BEST SOUNDTRACK
Who Should Win: Miracles
Who Will Win: The Monster Squad
No Chance: The Invincible Iron Man
Thought(s): Miracles boasted a great soundtrack, but it doesn't feature many splashy song choices. The Monster Squad features a strong nostalgic touch that I think could win over a good amount of voters though.
MOST WANTED SEQUEL
Who Should Win: Captain America
Who Will Win: Green Lantern Corps: Sinestro War
No Chance: The Invincible Iron Man
Thought(s): Green Lantern Corps: Sinestro War will definitely win this award, but I wish Captain America would. I feel like Hal Jordan's journey is at a point where I don't need to see what happens next, but Steve Rogers is just beginning.
BEST ENSEMBLE CAST
Who Should Win: The Deadliest Night in Show Business
Who Will Win: Caesar Part III
No Chance: Death of a Comic
Thought(s): I think Caesar Part III will win another trophy here, but The Deadliest Night in Show Business is arguably more deserving of it since it is far more reliant on the full ensemble cast.
BEST STARRING COUPLE
Who Should Win: Riz Ahmed & Tom Hardy - Paki
Who Will Win: Matilda De Angelis & Leonardo DiCaprio - Caesar Part III
No Chance: Richard Madden & Evan Rachel Wood - Among Us
Thought(s): DiCaprio has never won this award, so I think he's due. I think Ahmed and Hardy are more of an actual duo in Paki though. I'm not drawn by the other nominees.
BEST VILLAIN
Who Should Win: Will Poulter - Caesar Part III
Who Will Win: Luke Evans - Green Lantern Corps: Sinestro War
No Chance: Victoria Pedretti - Tara's Web
Thought(s): A lot has been made of other erotic thriller femme fatales winning this award (Sydney Sweeney & Angelina Jolie), but I don't think Pedretti or Tara's Web are really in the same stratosphere. This one is between Evans and Poulter for me.
BEST ADAPTATION
Who Should Win: Green Lantern Corps: Sinestro War
Who Will Win: Green Lantern Corps: Sinestro War
No Chance: Everyone Else
Thought(s): I don't see any film other than GLC: SW winning this award.
BEST ORIGINAL STORY
Who Should Win: Caesar Part III
Who Will Win: Caesar Part III
No Chance: Everyone Else
Thought(s): Same thing here. There's a clear and deserving film.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Who Should Win: Matilda De Angelis - Caesar Part III
Who Will Win: Margaret Qualley - Miracles
No Chance: Marcia Gay Harden - Death of a Comic
Thought(s): Matilda De Angelis gave what I believe has surpassed Elizabeth Taylor's performance to become the definitive big screen Cleopatra. Unfortunately I think Uma Thurman will steal enough votes from her from other Caesar fans to give Qualley the trophy by default.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Who Should Win: Douglas Booth - Caesar Part III
Who Will Win: Michael Keaton - Death of a Comic
No Chance: N/A
Thought(s): I'd like to see Booth win for recognition of his work over the three Caesar films (he was a steady force throughout). I don't see Death of a Comic having a great ceremony, but I think Keaton here is the film's best shot at gold. All that said, this award could go to any of the four nominees.
BEST ACTRESS
Who Should Win: Toni Collette - Miracles
Who Will Win: Victoria Pedretti - Tara's Web
No Chance: Amanda Seyfried - The Deadliest Night in Show Business
Thought(s): It's a weak category, but Collette deserves the trophy the most. That said, I think the voters tend to enjoy femme fatale performances here and since the competition isn't super steep, Pedretti might just take this one home.
BEST ACTOR
Who Should Win: Leonardo DiCaprio - Caesar Part III
Who Will Win: Leonardo DiCaprio - Caesar Part III
No Chance: Barry Keoghan - The Terminal Spy
Thought(s): DiCaprio should and will win his third Best Actor trophy as Caesar. I'd be stunned if someone else wins (with Sandler probably having the best chance to upset). Barry Keoghan should not have even been nominated here, so he has exactly zero chance of winning.
BEST DIRECTOR
Who Should Win: Christopher McQuarrie - Green Lantern Corps: Sinestro War
Who Will Win: Christopher Nolan - Caesar Part III
No Chance: Thomas Vinterberg - Death of a Comic
Thought(s): After not winning for Part II, I think the voters will give Nolan this one. I think McQuarrie is a bit more deserving (besides, Nolan already won for the first Caesar film).
BEST PICTURE
Who Should Win: Caesar Part III
Who Will Win: Caesar Part III
No Chance: Miracles & The Deadliest Night in Show Business
Thought(s): I'd say Caesar Part III has a 99% chance of winning Best Picture, deservedly so. GLC: SW has a 1% chance, with the other films at 0%.
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