For this awards-centric edition of The Roundup, I will go through each category and tell you who I think should win the award, who I think actually will win the award, and who I think has no chance to win - followed by a brief thought on the category this season. And for this season - and possibly future seasons - I have decided to bring back my snubs for each category as well.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Who Should Win: Gears of War 2
Who Will Win: The Beat Goes On
No Chance: AKA Billy the Kid
Snub(s): Duke Nukem
Thought(s): I consider the poster for Gears of War 2 to be the best of the season, but as the film's only nomination I don't many voters will give it much consideration. The Beat Goes On is a star-studded colorful poster, so the safe money is on it. I really would have liked to see Duke Nukem get a nomination here though as John Cena looks great as the video game character brought to life.
BEST SOUNDTRACK
Who Should Win: Duke Nukem
Who Will Win: The Beat Goes On
No Chance: Gas Bar Blues
Snub(s): The Hunchback of Notre Dame
Thought(s): It's surprising that the season's lone musical was kept out of the category by voters. I was surprised to see Gas Bar Blues get nominated at all in this category, so that probably doesn't bode well for its chances. I loved Duke Nukem's soundtrack, but The Beat Goes On has the more musically ambitious soundtrack, so I think voters will fall for it.
MOST WANTED SEQUEL
Who Should Win: Amityville
Who Will Win: Duke Nukem
No Chance: N/A
Snub(s): Nick Fury and His Howling Commandos
Thought(s): I am really intrigued by writer Jack Brown's plans for an Amityville franchise and I think his film was great horror, so I'd like to see a win somewhere. Duke Nukem, though, is a feel-good blockbuster that voters want to see more of. Superman and Iron Fist both have a legitimate chance though. I would love to see if Chad Taylor would mix even more supernatural into the Howling Commandos in a potential sequel.
BEST ENSEMBLE CAST
Who Should Win: The Beat Goes On
Who Will Win: The Beat Goes On
No Chance: Nick Fury and His Howling Commandos
Snub(s): Harvard Psychology
Thought(s): Not a lot of true ensemble films this season. AKA Billy the Kid is my favorite cast of the season, but it is really centered around the title character (and Pat Garrett to a lesser extant). The Beat Goes On is the closest to an old Hollywood ensemble blockbuster this season had to offer.
BEST STARRING COUPLE
Who Should Win: John Cena & Walker Scobell - Duke Nukem
Who Will Win: Robert Downey Jr. & Fionn Whitehead - Harvard Psychology
No Chance: Donald Glover & Michael B. Jordan - Victims
Snub(s): Jesse Eisenberg & Haley Lu Richardson - The Untitled Paul Nichols Project
Thought(s): Jesse Eisenberg never stood a chance in Best Actor with how stacked the category is this season, but I feel like he and Richardson deserved a nom here more than Glover and Jordan, who did not wow me at all. Cena and Walker deserve the award the most to me since their film is very reliant on their chemistry.
BEST VILLAIN
Who Should Win: Nick Robinson - Amityville
Who Will Win: Robert Downey Jr. - Harvard Psychology
No Chance: Eric Bana - Superman: Exile
Snub(s): Christopher Walken - The Hunchback of Notre Dame
Thought(s): Nick Robinson gave perhaps the most impressive performance of Season 28 so I think he should be given a booty prize here after missing out on Best Actor. Safe money is on Downey though, especially if voters can't make up their mind on which of his performances for Best Supporting Actor to get behind.
BEST ADAPTATION
Who Should Win: Amityville
Who Will Win: Duke Nukem
No Chance: The Immortal Iron Fist
Snub(s): The Spectre
Thought(s): This season was not the strongest for adaptations. Duke Nukem probably has enough fans to win, although Amityville really wowed me with its unique take on the source material.
BEST ORIGINAL STORY
Who Should Win: AKA Billy the Kid
Who Will Win: The Beat Goes On
No Chance: The Lights
Snub(s): N/A
Thought(s): This category is a true crapshoot between AKA Billy the Kid, The Beat Goes On and Harvard Psychology. Voters could pick a clear favorite and ride than film throughout the ceremony, or they could split up their votes which could end up with some surprise winners.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Who Should Win: Sydney Chandler - Harvard Psychology
Who Will Win: Anya Taylor-Joy - Beasts
No Chance: Haley Lu Richardson - The Untitled Paul Nichols Project
Snub(s): Sophie Nelisse - Amityville
Thought(s): Sophie Nelisse definitely deserved a nomination more than Haley Lu Richardson here. Clearly she got dinged for her performance coming in a straight horror film. Voters like actresses like Anya Taylor-Joy, so I think she'll win, but Sydney Chandler earned it more having to act opposite Robert Downey Jr. (and frankly giving the best performance in the film).
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Who Should Win: Robert Downey Jr. - Harvard Psychology
Who Will Win: Nicolas Cage - AKA Billy the Kid
No Chance: Bill Skarsgard - The Lights
Snub(s): Paul Mescal - The Beat Goes On
Thought(s): I suspect that RDJ's nominations are going to split the voting, giving Nic Cage an easy win here.
BEST ACTRESS
Who Should Win: Dafne Keen - Who Do You Trust When the World is at War?
Who Will Win: Florence Pugh - Beasts
No Chance: Gillian Jacobs - The Actors
Snub(s): N/A
Thought(s): This is easily one of the weakest Best Actress groups in LRF history - and that's saying something! Gillian Jacobs' nomination proves that. I'm not sure any are exactly deserving of a win here, but somebody will be awarded a trophy regardless.
BEST ACTOR
Who Should Win: Austin Butler - AKA Billy the Kid
Who Will Win: Austin Butler - AKA Billy the Kid
No Chance: Alden Ehrenreich - The Lights
Snub(s): Nick Robinson - Amityville
Thought(s): I will be stunned and bummed if Austin Butler doesn't win here. He gave the best "star" performance of the nominated actors. I think Whitehead and Smith have an outside chance, but their films aren't quite as reliant on them as AKA Billy the Kid is on Butler.
BEST DIRECTOR
Who Should Win: Baz Luhrmann - AKA Billy the Kid
Who Will Win: Ryan Coogler - The Beat Goes On
No Chance: Shane Black - Duke Nukem
Snub(s): Bong Joon-ho - The Lights
Thought(s): Baz Luhrmma earned the award, but I know his stylish approach turns off some people. Coogler feels like too safe of a choice, but that is a choice voters have made in this category before.
BEST PICTURE
Who Should Win: AKA Billy the Kid
Who Will Win: The Beat Goes On
No Chance: The Lights
Snub(s): Duke Nukem
Thought(s): Any of the three films with a Metascore of 85 could realistically win here, so this category is big guessing game. A lot will depend on how voters choose to split up the awards between AKA Billy the Kid, The Beat Goes On and Harvard Psychology. Don't be shocked if those three films clean up the lion's share of the trophies, leaving mere scraps for the other 13 films to fight for.
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