For this awards-centric edition of The Roundup, I will go through each category and tell you who I think should win the award, who I think actually will win the award, and who I think has no chance to win - followed by a brief thought on the category this season. And for this season - and possibly future seasons - I have decided to bring back my snubs for each category as well.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Who Should Win: Murder Mysteries
Who Will Win: Murder Mysteries
No Chance: The ComeBack
Snub(s): Vampire
Thought(s): I'd be shocked if Murder Mysteries doesn't take this one. Its production design is basically perfect. I honestly don't think any of the other nominees have any shot here.
BEST SOUNDTRACK
Who Should Win: Starman
Who Will Win: Moon Knight
No Chance: The Champ
Snub(s): The Dogs of Winter
Thought(s): This category feels ways more competitive than it usually is with this season having a whopping 12 soundtracks to choose from in the nomination voting phase. Modern, synth-y soundtracks have a good track record thanks to Roy Horne popularizing it in LRF, but I'd love to see Starman's 90s-centric soundtrack take the gold.
MOST WANTED SEQUEL
Who Should Win: Moon Knight
Who Will Win: Spider-Man: Requiem
No Chance: The Tomb of Dracula
Snub(s): The Crow: Midnight Garden
Thought(s): I don't see Dracula or The Crow winning this - sorry Jack Brown. If I had to bet, I'd put my money on Spider-Man, but I found Moon Knight a bit more bold and am more eager to see a follow-up.
BEST ENSEMBLE CAST
Who Should Win: Five Boroughs
Who Will Win: Murder Mysteries
No Chance: Spider-Man: Requiem
Snub(s): Starkweather
Thought(s): Like many categories this season, it looks like it could be down to Murder Mysteries vs. the group of well-regarded crime films. Five Boroughs is more reliant on its ensemble (even if a couple characters were duds), which is usually how I judge which film I think should win this particular category.
BEST STARRING COUPLE
Who Should Win: Toby Wallace & Jeremy Allen White - Five Boroughs
Who Will Win: Adam Driver & Jared Leto - Murder Mysteries
No Chance: Joey King & Steve Martin - Mimsley and Me
Snub(s): Matthew McConaughey & Sean Penn - The Dogs of Winter
Thought(s): The star power of Driver and Leto will probably give them a win here, but I think Five Boroughs' starring couple is SLIGHTLY more impressive to me this season.
BEST VILLAIN
Who Should Win: Matthew McConaughey - Spider-Man: Requiem
Who Will Win: Adam Sandler - Five Boroughs
No Chance: Antony Starr - The Tomb of Dracula
Snub(s): Happy Anderson - The Crow: Midnight Garden
Thought(s): Voters seem to like Sandler, but I'd like to see McConaughey win for the seemingly final outing of his Norman Osborn character.
BEST ADAPTATION
Who Should Win: The Dogs of Winter
Who Will Win: Murder Mysteries
No Chance: The Crow: Midnight Garden
Snub(s): The Champ
Thought(s): Best Adaptation has not been as strong as Best Original Story in recent seasons, but this season flips that script. Murder Mysteries seems to be the smart money, but I think my vote has to go to The Dogs of Winter for how it is helping stop the trend of failing novel adaptations.
BEST ORIGINAL STORY
Who Should Win: Five Boroughs
Who Will Win: Starkweather
No Chance: A German Tragedy
Snub(s): N/A
Thought(s): Lon Charles' Starkweather is a great version of the true story, but I appreciate the originality of the characters in Five Boroughs enough for it to get my vote.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Who Should Win: Thomasin McKenzie - Under the Influence
Who Will Win: Mia Goth - Murder Mysteries
No Chance: Elle Fanning - Spider-Man: Requiem
Snub(s): Gabriella Sengos - The Champ
Thought(s): I was pretty surprised that Fanning was nominated over Sengos here. Thomasin McKenzie was a bit snubbed for Black Hole, so she could get a booby prize trophy here with a weak crowd of nominees.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Who Should Win: Jared Leto - Murder Mysteries
Who Will Win: Matthew McConaughey - The Dogs of Winter
No Chance: Sam Rockwell - A German Tragedy
Snub(s): John Leguizamo - The Final Will
Thought(s): This is between Leto and McConaughey for sure. Leto stood out to me more, but I think voters may not be the biggest fan of him.
BEST ACTRESS
Who Should Win: Sadie Sink - Starkweather
Who Will Win: Sadie Sink - Starkweather
No Chance: Sophie Thatcher - The Crow: Midnight Garden
Snub(s): Lili Reinhart - Becoming Carole Lombard
Thought(s): I could maybe see Zoe Saldana sneaking in with a win here, but it has to be considered Sadie Sink's award to lose at this point.
BEST ACTOR
Who Should Win: Jacob Elordi - Starkweather
Who Will Win: Adam Driver - Murder Mysteries
No Chance: Ben Affleck - The Champ
Snub(s): Robert Downey Jr. - Under the Influence
Thought(s): I've never been a huge Adam Driver fan if I'm being honest. He feels a bit stiff and dry. Elordi though gave the type of performance in Starkweather that catapults a rising star straight to the A-list.
BEST DIRECTOR
Who Should Win: Darren Aronofsky - Murder Mysteries
Who Will Win: David Fincher - The Dogs of Winter
No Chance: Denis Villeneuve - Moon Knight
Snub(s): Josh & Benny Safdie - Five Boroughs
Thought(s): I think Aronofsky deserves the win for how visually rich Murder Mysteries is, but Fincher has the benefit of The Dogs of Winter being much more recent in the memory of the voters.
BEST PICTURE
Who Should Win: Murder Mysteries
Who Will Win: Murder Mysteries
No Chance: Five Boroughs
Snub(s): The Champ
Thought(s): In my eyes, Murder Mysteries is not only the best picture of Season 29 but also the most deserving of the win here.
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