The Roundup with Jeff Stockton (Season 33 GRA Edition)

 

For this awards-centric edition of The Roundup, I will go through each category and tell you who I think should win the award, who I think actually will win the award, who I think has no chance to win, who I think may have been snubbed out of a nomination (if anyone) - followed by a brief thought on the category this season.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Who Should Win: The Hammer of Thor: The Frost War
Who Will Win: The Lone Ranger
No Chance: N/A

Snub(s): Night Stalker

Thought(s): This category is a tricky one this season, but I think it will come down to Thor or the Lone Ranger.

BEST SOUNDTRACK
Who Should Win: We Still Know Where You Live
Who Will Win: Broadway Joe
No Chance: Love Is...
Snub(s): Danya

Thought(s): Voters seem to like period pieces in this category, so I think Broadway Joe has a big chance of winning. I think it should go to We Still Know Where You Live though for how well the music captures the tone and vibe of the film - serving it perfectly.

MOST WANTED SEQUEL
Who Should Win: Bashenga: The Black Panther
Who Will Win: Power Rangers
No Chance: The Legend of Zelda
Snub(s): Supergirl: Power

Thought(s): I don't see Zelda win this with its only nomination. Power Rangers, on the other hand, I can see winning - even if it should go to Bashenga. I think Supergirl: Power getting a nomination would have made for a tougher voting.

BEST ENSEMBLE CAST
Who Should Win: Splendour
Who Will Win: Broadway Joe
No Chance: The Lone Ranger
Snub(s): N/A

Thought(s): Splendour should win, but having a smaller ensemble could hurt its chances here.

BEST STARRING COUPLE
Who Should Win: Ana de Armas & Michael B. Jordan - Before Love Came to Kill Us
Who Will Win: Jacob Elordi & Amber Midthunder - The Lone Ranger
No Chance: Timothee Chalamet & Kaitlyn Dever - Punch Buggy
Snub(s): Chloe Grace Moretz & Amanda Seyfried - Supergirl: Power

Thought(s): This category is one of Lone Ranger's likeliest wins, but it does feature some tough competition.

BEST VILLAIN
Who Should Win: Toby Kebbell - We Still Know Where You Live
Who Will Win: Danny Ramirez - Night Stalker
No Chance: They all have a chance.
Snub(s): N/A

Thought(s): This category is STACKED this year. 

BEST ADAPTATION
Who Should Win: Bashenga: The Black Panther
Who Will Win: The Lone Ranger
No Chance: Sniper / Lucifer
Snub(s): N/A

Thought(s): An interesting mix of genre pictures in this category this season. I'd bet on Bashenga or Lone Ranger to win though - could go either way.

BEST ORIGINAL STORY
Who Should Win: Splendour
Who Will Win: Broadway Joe
No Chance: Either/Or
Snub(s): N/A

Thought(s): Three of the four films here were considered "Must See" by the critics, so they certainly have more chances than Either/Or.
 
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Who Should Win: Zoe Kazan - Night Stalker
Who Will Win: Mila Kunis - Rise Again
No Chance: Blythe Danner - Love Is...
Snub(s): N/A

Thought(s): I think this race is between Kazan and Kunis. I think Kazan gave the better/more interesting performance, but Kunis has star power working in her favor (which seems to help in categories like this one).

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Who Should Win: Michael Pitt - Splendour
Who Will Win: Michael Pena - Night Stalker
No Chance: Steve Martin - Love Is...
Snub(s): N/A

Thought(s): I have a hunch that Pitt and Russell may split Splendour's voters here, which could give Michael Pena the win (I don't think Martin stands much of a chance).

BEST ACTRESS
Who Should Win: Rebecca Hall - Splendour
Who Will Win: Rebecca Hall - Splendour
No Chance: Kaitlyn Dever / Jodie Comer 
Snub(s): N/A

Thought(s): In a weak field this season, this should be Rebecca Hall's award. Nobody else comes close to her performance as Natalie Wood in Splendour. Maybe Midthunder can steal a few votes, but not enough to win.

BEST ACTOR
Who Should Win: Ashton Kutcher - Splendour
Who Will Win: Jeremy Allen White - Broadway Joe
No Chance: Lucas Hedges - Cedar Ridge
Snub(s): Bryan Domani - Either/Or

Thought(s): I was surprised Hedges managed a nomination here, but I guess that's a testament to the lack of strong favorites this season in this category. If I had to bet on who will win, White seems the most popular with voters, but Kutcher deserves the award for giving what could be a career re-defining performance as Robert Wagner in Splendour.

BEST DIRECTOR
Who Should Win: Steve McQueen - Bashenga: The Black Panther
Who Will Win: Brady Corbet - Splendour
No Chance: James Mangold - The Lone Ranger
Snub(s): David O. Russell - Broadway Joe

Thought(s): This feels like Brady Corbet's category this season. The take on that material suits him well, and Splendour feels like a director and cast showcase more than a story showcase.

BEST PICTURE
Who Should Win: Splendour
Who Will Win: Splendour
No Chance: Bashenga: The Black Panther
Snub(s): The Lone Ranger

Thought(s): We have four VERY different films in the category this season, so I'm really just going with my gut here. Splendour feels like the most awards friendly of the four films.