The Storylines:
Where to begin? I know what some of the major storylines may seem to be. The town has been abuzz the last few weeks after a strong finish to the season, with the main question being: Is Judas Iscariot the best LRF film ever? And that’s definitely a valid question. But I have perhaps a more intriguing one to pose: Is Season 23 LRF’s best season? As far as a combining box office success and critical reception, I would say there is certainly an argument to be made.
I’m sure the studio, Jeff Stockton, and a whole lot of creatives are pleased with the financial success of this last season. It was not too long ago that Season 21 was one of the lowest-grossing seasons in the history of the studio. Season 22 marked a step-up from that and 23 has continued the upward trend, led by the heroics of Booster Gold and Spider-Man. But that’s not all. Critical darlings Judas Iscariot and Poison Ivy: Mind Games were also smash hits and original films like El Dorado and A Boy and His Robot turned a great profit. While no overall box office records were broken, the season ranked highly in nearly every category including the:
-Third highest domestic box office total (behind 13 and 17)
-Third highest foreign box office total (behind 3 and 13)
-Fourth highest total box office (behind 13, 3, and 17)
And then there is the quality of the films themselves. The end of the season really saw one of the most critically adored runs in LRF history. 7 of the last 10 releases of the season had a Metascore of 80 or higher and notched a staggering 41 GRA nominations between those 7. An analysis of Metascore averages found that the season ranked highly in that regard as well. The top 5 averages look like this:
5. Season 1 (65.96)
4. Season 21 (66.53)
3. Season 23 (66.86)
2. Season 16 (68.1)
1. Season 15 (68.66)
So once again, it is not necessarily the highest regarded season. But I want to note that there is no overlap between that list and the seasons at the top of the box office charts (in fact, seasons 16 and 21 are some of the lowest seasons for box office). So when combining the two scales (box office and Metascores), I’d say Season 23 certainly makes a strong case for being the most successful season in LRF history.
Now onto some other storylines. This is the Season of the Lead Antagonist. Or maybe the Season of the Anti-Hero. Those labels aren’t totally applicable to this GRAs top three contenders—Judas, Poison Ivy, and The Producer—but there is certainly a trend there. Some the leads of those films are more redeemable than others but, either way, it’s hard to say that any of the three leads of those films are straightforward good guys. This gives the season a bit of a darker feel, especially when in conjunction with films like Berserker, Blue Ridge, Carpenter and The House of Romanov.
But that brings forward one of the most interesting storylines of this season. For arguably the first time since the expansion to four nominees-per-category, a handful of major critical successes have been left out in the cold. The four previously mentioned films landed a total of 11 nominations; or only one more than the totals for Judas and The Producer. This is an unfortunate side-effect of a season loaded with high-quality releases.
While Judas Iscariot and The Producer are tied at the top (and Poison Ivy: Mind Games one step behind), this certainly feels like the biblical drama’s ceremony to lose at this point. Prior to this season, 12 films in the history of the studio have had a Metascore of 90 or higher. Here is the Best Picture track record of that bunch:
-Jonestown (Won Best Picture)
-Solution (Won)
-To the White Sea (Lost to Cape Torment)
-Death Dream (Won)
-Ghost Town (Won)
-Caesar Part II (Won)
-Sinkhole (Lost to Cape Torment)
-Libra (Un-nominated)
-A View from the Bridge (Lost to Jonestown)
-The Prisoner (Won)
-True West (Un-nominated)
-The King of Hearts (Won)
As you can see, the odds are certainly in the favor of Malone and Nichols. But that doesn’t mean that there isn’t any intrigue in most of the categories. To keep the gambling metaphor going, three of the four acting categories feel like total crapshoots at this point. Best Actor and both supporting categories feel like they could realistically go to any of the four nominees and had viable candidates snubbed in the proceedings. Once again, I take this as an indicator of the incredibly high quality of this season.
If you need anymore proof of that, take a look at the Returning Winners section below. Or the Production Design category, where all four nominees turned a profit and had a Metascore above 80. The studio was truly firing on all cylinders this season.
The Surprises & Snubs:
Snub: Matthew McConaughey - Once again, more than anything this is the victim of one of the strongest Best Actor batches in years. McConaughey delivered arguably the strongest performance in Blue Ridge but that wasn’t enough to crack the top 4.
Surprise: Haley Lu Richardson - On the flip side of Best Actor is Best Actress, the weakest of the acting categories. But that’s not to say that the talent on display is weak. There are even two former winners in the bunch including Richardson, who is the closest thing to a surprise of the quartet.
Snub: Richard Kelly - The Best Director category is a fascinating one. We’ll talk about Nichols later but he is a mainstay. Sam Levinson gets nominated for a sequel to a film that he was not originally nominated for. And two actor-directors take up the other two spots. But I wish there would’ve been room for Carpenter’s Kelly, who really helped Roy Horne imprint a distinct tone to one of the season’s best films.
Surprise: Best Adaptation - The entire batch of nominees is so strong this year that surprises are relatively hard to come by. Best Adaptation is perhaps the most eye-catching category as all four films are sequels. I believe this is the first time this has happened in GRA history.
Snub: The House of Romanov Cast - For a Best Ensemble nominee, Romanov only coming away with one acting nomination has to feel like a tough blow. Couple that with missing out on Best Original Story and the film certainly feels like one of those most impacted by the late-season surge.
Previous Winners:
Sydney Sweeney - She had this slot last season and she maintains here (making my job a little easier). Despite having only five films under her belt, Sydney is certainly LRF’s It Girl. Last season, she was nominated for both Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress. But her most successful season was 19, when she won Best Actress and Villain…for the same character she is nominated for in those categories this time. While one character winning multiple GRAs across different ceremonies isn’t unprecedented (DiCaprio’s Caesar), can Sweeney become the first person to win 4 GRAs for the same role?
Jeff Nichols - Nichols has worked for the studio since Season 3, making a total of 9 films in that time. The last round’s Box Office Breakdown noted the financial success of his collabs with John Malone. But look at the quality as well: across those 9 films, his average Metascore is 81. Certified Fresh! He last won Best Director for The Void in Season 21 after being nominated twice before. Can he repeat that feat two seasons later?
Tom Hardy - The lead of Judas Iscariot is one of the most successful actors in LRF history. This marks his fourth time being nominated for Best Actor. He won it the first time back in Season 3 with another Malone collaboration (The Prisoner) and then again in Season 8 for Crowley. So it has been a while…can Hardy reclaim his spot on top of the LRF world?
Shailene Woodley - With multiple nominees from the same film, Woodley might find herself as the favorite in the strong Best Supporting Actress category. She previously won Best Actress the last time she worked with John Malone for Elysian back in Season 14.
Haley Lu Richardson - As previously mentioned, Richardson returns to the Best Actress category for the first time since winning it. She won back in Season 7 for Mo Buck’s powerhouse Runaway.
Jessica Chastain - The third of the former Best Actress winners to be nominated this year is Chastain. She has won once before, back in Season 5 for Sinkhole. This is her fifth nomination in Best Actress, breaking a four-way tie for most nominations between her, Christina Hendricks, Margot Robbie, and Brie Larson.
Robert Pattinson - The Blue Ridge nominee is making his debut in the Best Supporting Actor category. But he’s won Best Actor in the past, for Season 14’s Germinal.
Tom Cruise - And speaking of Best Actor winners debuting in the supporting category, Pattinson faces stiff competition in the GRA Lifetime Achievement winner. Cruise is a three-time Best Actor nominee and won for The King of Hearts but Haven marks his first supporting role at LRF.
Previous Nominees:
Nicolas Cage - The star has had a successful LRF career, with a mix of blockbusters and acclaimed dramas. But he has never won a GRA. He was nominated for Best Supporting Actor previously for Of Rocks and Sand but now he is debuting in the BestA actor category. Can he add his first GRA to his trophy cabinet?
Jimmy Ellis - While most of the writing categories are loaded with previous winners, there is a chance for the first if the Task Force X sequel wins Best Adaptation. That would be Ellis’s first time winning in that category. He’s been nominated twice before (Days Without End and Red Wolf).
The Newcomers:
Bradley Cooper - This one may come as a surprise but this is Cooper’s first time being nominated for one of the four major acting awards. He’s actually won two GRAs (Best Starring Couple for True West and Best Ensemble for Broadway) but the only individual award he’s ever been nominated for is Best Villain (for Ringer).
Viggo Mortensen - Speaking of Best Villain, Mortensen won that category just last season for his portrayal of Ra’s al Ghul. But his performance in Berserker is his first time in one of the major categories. Being one of only two nominations for the film, is he Berserker’s best chance at brining home gold?
Best Supporting Actress - Outside of Woodley, all three other nominees—Adele Exarchopoulos, Emily Browning, Melissa George—are first-time debutantes at the GRAs.
Aidan Turner - Turner has now played two iconic characters at LRF in Superman and Jesus of Nazareth. He’s actually now a four-time Best Ensemble nominee but this is his first time being nominated for an individual acting award. Fellow Best Supporting nominee Matt Dillon is also making his debut in the individual acting categories.
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