BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Who Will Win: American Dream
Who Should Win: To the Moon
No Chance: One for the Ages
Biggest Snub: Batman: Caped Crusader
Thought(s): Batman: Caped Crusader really has solidified the style of this series of Batman films, so I'm surprised its design wasn't nominated. One for the Ages, while featuring gorgeous artwork, is a period sports drama - not the type of film to usually win. American Dream's art captured the seediness of L.A. well, but To the Moon really should win.
BEST SOUNDTRACK
Who Will Win: American Dream
Who Should Win: Outlaw Country
No Chance: Hippies in New York
Biggest Snub: N/A
Thought(s): Hippies in New York is lucky to have a nomination here, frankly. While the songs are good, they really don't even fit the story or tone of the film all that much. American Dream has a great soundtrack, but I can't help but feel that Outlaw Country's period soundtrack should win.
MOST WANTED SEQUEL
Who Will Win: Batman: Caped Crusader
Who Should Win: Batman: Caped Crusader
No Chance: God of War
Biggest Snub: Halo 4
Thought(s): God of War was a disaster of a film, so I'm surprised by its nomination. Maybe people are just excited about the potential of the sequels now with Roy Horne taking over the writing duties (I know I am), but I honestly think the sequel should be as different from the first as possible (more of a reboot still starring Hardy than a sequel), so really shouldn't be nominated. This is Batman's award to lose.
BEST ENSEMBLE CAST
Who Will Win: Calamity
Who Should Win: Spark of Madness
No Chance: Outlaw Country
Biggest Snub: Mass Effect: The Shadow Broker
Thought(s): A strong category this season. Outlaw Country, with its lack of A-listers, has no shot this season. I'd say it's a coin toss between Calamity and Spark of Madness. Calamity will probably win because of its three A-listers, but Spark of Madness has a more colorful cast of characters and really should win.
BEST STARRING COUPLE
Who Will Win: Leonardo DiCaprio & Anne Hathaway - Calamity
Who Should Win: John Boyega & Alden Ehrenreich - American Dream
No Chance: Sofia Boutella & Donald Glover - Alex + Ada
Biggest Snub: Sarah Gadon & Alexander Skarsgard - Halo 4
Thought(s): Gadon & Skarsgard have maintained excellent chemistry over four films now and really deserve to be recognized in some way. DiCaprio and Hathaway will probably win even though they really don't have very much screen time together.
BEST VILLAIN
Who Will Win: Jeremy Irons - Mandingos
Who Should Win: Jeremy Irons - Mandingos
No Chance: Jude Law - Outlaw Country
Biggest Snub: Taron Egerton - Scion 2
Thought(s): Jeremy Irons delivers a great, slimy performance as the villain in Mandingos that will probably see him awarded. Jude Law gave a similarly good performance in Outlaw Country, but the film has doesn't have any buzz left, so I put his chance of winning at 0.00000000000000001%.
BEST ADAPTATION
Who Will Win: To the Moon
Who Should Win: American Dream
No Chance: Alex + Ada
Biggest Snub: Halo 4
Thought(s): This is an unusually weak lineup this season. Usually this award is an indicator of Best Picture, but not this season - unless To the Moon wins both. American Dream is the best overall film in this category this year, but it probably won't win. Alex + Ada, while a decent film, had too many scenes that didn't move the film story and too many characters who didn't contribute to the story to win a writing award. I would have liked to see Halo 4 nominated instead.
BEST ORIGINAL STORY
Who Will Win: Calamity
Who Should Win: Spark of Madness
No Chance: Before You Help
Biggest Snub: Outlaw Country
Thought(s): No offense to Jack Ryder, but I can't see Before You Help winning here. It's just not flashy enough. This is one of the strongest categories this season, and unusually features better films than the Best Adaptation category. I see Calamity winning, but Spark of Madness should win for its inventiveness (even if I didn't like the ending). It would have been nice if Outlaw Country had been nominated since I love how it used historical western characters in fun ways.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Who Will Win: Margot Robbie - Calamity
Who Should Win: Carrie Coon - To the Moon
No Chance: Florence Pugh - One for tha Ages
Biggest Snub: Sarah Gadon - Halo 4
Thought(s): Sarah Gadon does not get nearly enough love for her work in the Halo series. She should have been nominated over Florence Pugh, who frankly, is just okay in One for the Ages. Carrie Coon gave a heartbreaking performance in To the Moon and should win, but Margot Robbie is a big star so I bet she'll get the votes needed to win.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Who Will Win: Christopher Walken - Spark of Madness
Who Should Win: Christopher Walken - Spark of Madness
No Chance: David Harbour - To the Moon
Biggest Snub: Vince Vaughn - One for tha Ages
Thought(s): One of the strongest categories of the season. I would have liked to see Vaughn nominated, but it's a tough category this season so it's understandable. Harbour delivered the best performance of his career, and in any other season he'd probably win the award, but he's up against some heavy hitters this season, especially Walken who gives his best performance in decades. Walken should, and probably will, win this one.
BEST ACTRESS
Who Will Win: Jennifer Lawrence - Burial Rites
Who Should Win: Kirsten Dunst - Black Dublin
No Chance: Kirsten Dunst - Black Dublin
Biggest Snub: Margot Robbie - Life After Lfe
Thought(s): Award voters always seem to love J-Law, so she'll probably win Best Actress this season, but Dunst carried Black Dublin with her phenomenal performance.
BEST ACTOR
Who Will Win: Leonardo DiCaprio - Calamity
Who Should Win: Leonardo CiCaprio - Calamity
No Chance: Jake Gyllenhaal - Batman: Caped Crusader
Biggest Snub: Viggo Mortensen - Tenth Circle
Thought(s): Gyllenhaal is a great Batman (and an even better Bruce Wayne), but his nomination is more of a statement on how weak this category is this season (in an already fairly weak season - no offense). DiCaprio will and should win for his duplicitous performance.
BEST DIRECTOR
Who Will Win: David O. Russell - Spark of Madness
Who Should Win: Steve McQueen - Mandingos
No Chance: Joseph Kosinski - Batman: Caped Crusader
Biggest Snub: Jeff Nichols - Scion 2
Thought(s): I'm surprised by Spike Jonze's nomination due to his work arguably being the weakest link with Calamity, however, the film is so good that he ended up with a nomination. I like Kosinski's take on the Dark Knight, but can't see him winning if Nolan or Refn couldn't win anything for directing their DC films. It boils down to a bit of a coin toss between Russell and McQueen. Russell will probably win because the momentum seems to favor his film, but McQueen probably should win due to the film being more reliant on his direction.
BEST PICTURE
Who Will Win: Calamity
Who Should Win: Calamity
No Chance: Mandingos
Biggest Snub: N/A
Thought(s): Honestly the best four films of the season are probably the ones representing the category this season (for once). They are all strong films, but Calamity will probably win, and probably should, due to the size of the drama. It's a film full of emotion and mystery with a great script and even better actors in front of the camera.
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