As sometimes happens, this appears to be a season that is more heavily invested in blockbuster filmmaking (as opposed to what may be considered “awards-friendly). While this obviously makes sense for the studio’s pockets, it does leave a lot of intrigue around what the GRA race will look like. This does tend to happen frequently (in addition to later releases sticking out more in voters minds) but it is still worth trying to parse out where things stand.
The season’s first round saw the release of what is likely to be a clear front-runner. The King of Hearts, from Bennett Miller and Chad Taylor, notched the first 90+ metascore in seven seasons (the eleventh film in LRF history to do so). For those keeping score at home, five of the previous ten won Best Picture so it’s not always an exact deal breaker (although some of those competed against one another). A strong draw to this one is its cast, with stars Tom Cruise and Tom Hanks likely early front-runners in the actor categories (in addition to Best Starring Couple).
To borrow from the title of a film from last season, the rest of the field is a bit...fractured at this point. A handful of films have seen a modest reception from critics this season. Due to its low-key nature, Ang Lee’s A Life might be one of those victims of an early release slot but it did have some worthwhile performances within it. Guy Ritchie’s Pulp - the latest collab between the Malone & Ellis writing team - is certainly entertaining and has some big names but films like that don’t often get awards plays (perhaps they should?). Suburban is a bit of an odd boat as it has a lead role that is tailor-made for an awards circuit run except that the casting of that role has been circled as its biggest flaw in the eyes of many. One wild card I am just not sure about is Meirad Tako’s 1965. It is an intense historical drama - a genre traditionally friendly to awards. The lack of worldwide name status of the cast does this make this hard to campaign for but I could see someone like Laura Basuki being a surprise name that pops up on nominations day.
This last round did see three films that could see multiple nominations at the GRAs. While rom-coms are pretty rare around here, Kylie Dates New York City has multiple strong female performances in a season that is lacking in them thus far. The Hit Maker has a big name actor in a memorable role. And Justice League Dark is another celebration of the studio’s superheroes so it is very plausible that it could pop up in categories like villain, production design, and ensemble cast.
Speaking of superheroes, though, one thing that has helped out this post tremendously is the LRF Comic Con that started off this season. How great was that? While some of those films have already passed, the reveals from that day give me a lot to talk about in regards to the tentpoles of the second half of the season. Leigh Whannel’s The Hulk has been building up a buzz on various message boards with its casting process. The Sandman - a property that has had a complicated path to the big screen - is also starting to build up steam after some characters popped up at the end of Justice League Dark.
But without a doubt the two biggest headlines are the last two comic book films of the season: Namor the Sub-Mariner and Green Lantern Corps. If you’re making a list of top stars at LRF, Alden Ehrenreich and Tom Cruise are almost 100% on that list. Not only is their first superhero movies noteworthy but also who they are pairing with. John Malone is writing Namor while Chris McQuarrie is helming Green Lantern - two people who frequently collaborate with these actors. Around Hollywood, the sense I get from industry insiders and studio execs is that LRF has a lot of chips in these baskets. While neither are the most well-known heroes (on the level of Batman and Superman), their productions will likely cost a pretty penny given the sea and space settings (at least for parts of the films). So going with these proven duos (in addition to someone like APJ who is a steadyhand in the DC Universe), these both seem like safe bets for the studio.
Elsewhere, we’re starting to know more and more about what is to come for the rest of the season. Next round will see the release of Peter and the Shadow Thieves - a surprise sequel to a Season 2 film that was not well received by critics but made a lot of money. The Smoke in the Red Country sounds like a throwback action-thriller that will introduce Gerard Butler to the studio. Finally, perhaps a musical revival is afoot at the studio as Jacob Jones’s brings us another Broadway musical adaptation with Natasha, Pierre, & the Great Comet of 1812. While the casting of “Weird” Al Yankovic recently caught headlines, I have to imagine that a cast headlined by Jared Leto, Selena Gomez, and Justin Timberlake might also prove a bit divisive (at least they all can sing which is likely a major factor here).
From what we know thus far, One Day More and High School sound like potential award contenders on paper (especially the latter given Elle Fanning’s past success at the studio). All The Pretty Horses has some notable source material while also bringing in both a new screenwriter and legendary director Terrence Malick to LRF. Elsewhere, there is still a bit of “unknown” in the cases of things like Escape the Unknown and The Devil’s Revenge. While we don’t have any info on it yet, The Glass Menagerie is a well-known play (which adaptations of that nature have had success in the past here). And finally Kiss Me, Katie. While plot details are scant, writer Jacob Jones mentioned on his blog that he was circling Jean-Marc Vallee, Mackenzie Foy, and Michael B. Jordan to be a part of this film. If those deals are finalized, that would definitely become one to watch given the history those people have at LRF.
So there it is, a bit of reflection and preview of what is to come. I’ll be checking in again with For Your Consideration and it will be fascinating to see where all of these races (and the perception of the season as a whole) end up by then. Thank you for joining me on this ride. I will see you at the movies!
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