The Storylines:
This round of nominations was heavily dominated by the four Best Picture nominees: Lowell, The Punisher, Caesar, and Cocaine Cowboys. These four films accounted for 35 nominations total - around 60% of the available slots. These films held a firm grasp on Best Director and Best Ensemble - two awards that are typically indicative of Best Picture winner. So let's break these down one-by-one before discussing other storylines.
Caesar is at the top with ten nominations - marking the 6th time this has been achieved. In terms of GRA history, the film is stacked with critical favorites. There is a GRA-winning director. The writers have combined to win 16 writing awards (one of which is shared for Scion). And a cast that boasts three actors who have now all been nominated for acting awards at least three times. DiCaprio is chasing glory as he attempts to win his third straight Best Actor trophy in three LRF appearances. As I will detail later, Irons and Crowe have much more interesting path to this point and a win would mark a long-awaited achievement for either.
Cocaine Cowboys, The Punisher, and a great Writer's Commentary for LRF NOW have established this as the season of Gallo. 18 nominations in one ceremony is quite the achievement for any writer but especially one with only two films in a season. Unlike Caesar, Cocaine Cowboys is a film without much of a pedigree as the likes of Wahlberg and Bay are often more associated with popular films than critical darlings. The Punisher, meanwhile, is in unique territory. It is the highest nominated superhero film in LRF history (Man of Tomorrow previously held that mark at 7) and is only the second after Namor: The Sub-Mariner to land a Best Picture nominee. Mel Gibson has one of the more complicated star careers of the last fifty years that includes awards and box office success, public controversies, switches between director and actor, and a dip into B-movies. Will this ceremony solidify his comeback?
And finally Lowell, the earliest release of the bunch. The crop of 7 nominations would be near the top in any other season but this foursome puts it down in fourth. With an ensemble cast like this, you have to wonder if the abundance of good performances took votes away from one another. Damon and Affleck are certainly worthy nominees but them being the biggest names also likely helped them land a spot here. The question for Lowell will be: can it withstand the dangers of an early-season release date amidst the wave of three strong contenders that came after? I think it has a chance.
In other races, there are some intriguing storylines to follow. While the Best Actress pool was not too deep this season, trying to predict a winner for that category seems particularly difficult. If I had to put odds on it, it seems like a three-horse race between Johnson, Moss, and Sink. But as I will discuss later, Chastain is a GRA favorite so it's hard to totally rule her out just because it is an action movie. Best Actor is also difficult because three of the four previously mentioned films also have representatives in that race. Overall, the main storyline to follow will be to see if one of that quartet breaks out from the pack and dominates the ceremony or if they will share their glories amongst one another.
The Surprises & Snubs:
Surprise: Elisabeth Moss - This actually feels like a fairly predictable year in terms of nominees so the surprises are few and far between. But the inclusion of Moss is here is mainly because she was nominated for Bad Dreams Come True and not Sleeping Beauties, as some GRA predictors prognosticated. I actually did think she had a better chance for BDCT but I did worry that she could perhaps be a victim of vote-splitting with her self. Luckily, her stellar season was rewarded with a nomination in one way or another.
Snub: Sam Raimi - Speaking of Sleeping Beauties, I would've loved to see a surprise Raimi nomination in Best Director. Did I expect it? Absolutely not. But I'm always a fan of when we get surprise genre nominations in this category and when it doesn't match the Best Picture field. Raimi would have been more than deserving in this return to form.
Snub: Lock Every Door - While this film did receive three nominations (all in areas that were somewhat expected), it is a shame that it still feels a bit under-recognized. Debra Granik is another person who I thought was deserving of a director nom and there were a few supporting parts that also had a shot.
Surprise: Reese Witherspoon - This one is mainly surprising because Witherspoon's character was one of the main critiques of The Youngest Hart. That being said, it is nominated for Best Villain and the over-the-top villainous nature of the character certainly fits for the category.
Snub: Mark Webber, Mark Wahlberg, & Robert Pattinson - As is often the case, the Best Actor category was stacked this season. There were more than a few worthy names left on the outside looking in that are listed here. Perhaps most surprising is Webber given the positive momentum he had from the Silver Star Awards and some awards blogs behind him (although he was always going to be an underdog to the more established names).
Previous Winners:
Leonardo DiCaprio - What is there to say about Leo? I already mentioned him in the Storylines but he is trying to make it 3-for-3 here after already winning Best Actor for Blackwater and Calamity.
Jessica Chastain - While not quite matching Leo's perfect record, the streak that Chastain is on is quite impressive. She is now on a streak of three straight performances that have been nominated for Best Actress (Mr. Big and Sinkhole, which she won for). She was also nominated for Blood Countess, making an astounding 4 of her 6 films at LRF with her being nominated for Best Actress.
Christopher Nolan - One of the most heralded filmmakers of today's day and age returns after a long absence at LRF. He won for his directing of The Prisoner before the underwhelming follow-up Drake.
Elisabeth Moss - The previously mentioned Moss is a GRA-winner but in the category of Best Supporting Actress for Season 1's Invisible Monsters. She was considered by most to be a snub in Season 15 for her performance in Visions so this gives her a chance to take revenge.
Matt Damon & Ben Affleck - I just had to group these two together, didn't I? The friends have been associated for their entire career and this only furthers the connection. What is interesting here is that Affleck has won Best Supporting Actor (Born in Brooklyn) and Damon has won in Best Actor (Newbury Street). Thus, this season gives them each the chance to get both awards under their belt (and maybe even a Best Starring Couple together).
Previous Nominees:
S. Craig Zahler - Zahler was nominated for his LRF debut in Season 10 with 7 Days. Since then, he has been a steady presence in the studio working with the likes of Mark Newton and Jack Slipter before breaking through here with The Punisher.
Mel Gibson - And his Punisher star also makes an appearance here as well. He was nominated for Best Actor back in Season 7 for his lead performance in Best Picture winner The Squared Circle.
Jeremy Irons - Irons has found consistent work at LRF since Season 2 and this marks his third Best Supporting Actor nomination. He was previously nominated for Haunted and Mandingos (which he won Best Villain for).
Julianne Moore - While she didn't land a Best Director nomination, Moore returns to the Best Supporting Actress category after having been nominated for Tenth Circle.
Russell Crowe - Crowe has a fascinating GRA history that was hinted at earlier. He is a record three-time winner of Best Villain for Blood Meridian, Kite, and Blind Faith. All three times, he was nominated for Best Actor and lost out. Can this be the time he finally breaks through and wins one of the major acting awards?
The Newcomers:
LaKeith Stanfield - There's a handful of newcomers here, which is an exciting prospect. Stanfield is one example as the rising star was recognized for Drawing Dion. He's been in two Best Picture-nominated films but this is his first time landing a nomination for one of his roles.
Sadie Sink - Sink is also someone who has worked her way up to this nomination, including being a part of the winning ensemble for Born in Brooklyn. I believe this is also the first time someone has been nominated in the same season they were featured in an LRF Now movie.
Dakota Johnson - LRF's Lois Lane finds herself as a potential front-runner here in her first individual nomination. She was previously the part of two GRA-nominated ensembles in Superman and Outlaw Country.
Manuel Garcia-Rulfo & Salma Hayek - This memorable twosome from Cocaine Cowboys are both first time nominees. Garcia-Rulfo made his debut this season while Hayek had previously been in Maximum Ride.
Olivia DeJonge - Another young actress on the verge of break-out success after her acclaimed performance as Julius Caesar's daughter Julia. This marks her third film in four seasons at the studio after Love in Season 15 and Excalibur in Season 16. She is set to return to the studio not long after the ceremony with Season 19's Shouts from the Well.
Michael Bay - The well-known blockbuster director is nominated for the first time for a critical award for the first time in his career. His previous films at LRF include all-time grosser Justice League International and AGOS: A Game of Survival.
Rene Menzie - The writing categories are usually populated with familiar faces. This season sees the introduction of a new name as Rene Menzie lands a Best Adaptation nomination for LRF debut Lock Every Door.
Season 19 Preview:
We don't have much to go on at the moment as we look ahead to Season 19. Task Force X starts off the season with a superhero film although likely without any superheroes. Jacob Jones has been one the most frequent contributor to the animated genre at LRF (a genre which typically has a difficult time landing awards nominations). Kansas City and Shouts from the Well certainly have potential based on the careers of their directors David Robert Mitchell and David Fincher. And we see the conclusion of a rare non-superhero trilogy here at LRF with Meirad Tako's Police Story: Case Closed. When scanning the titles of the rest of the season, the one that stands out is Superman: The Last Son of Krypton. Can it replicate the success of its predecessor? I guess that remains to be seen. I will be checking in again mid-way through that season but until then, thank you for reading For Your Consideration!
