BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Who Should Win: Ghost Rider
Who Will Win: Run For Your Life
No Chance: The Rise and Fall of Ziggy Stardust and the Spiders from Mars
Thought(s): Honestly, I'm not particularly impressed by these nominees. I think Ghost Rider should win, but mostly because it is the only nominee that would have made my ballot for the category. I'm against The Rise and Fall of Ziggy Stardust and the Spiders from Mars winning the award. Not because it's especially unworthy, but because out of principle I am against awarding any film with a 12-word title.
BEST SOUNDTRACK
Who Should Win: Rodeo
Who Will Win: Knievel
No Chance: Twisted Metal
Thought(s): As far as I can tell, a heavy metal soundtrack has never taken home this award, which hurts Twisted Metal's chances. I loved the soundtrack to Rodeo - it matched the emotion of the storytelling. That said, I'd put my money on Knievel since it is a period piece and those tend to do well in this category.
MOST WANTED SEQUEL
Who Should Win: Ghost Rider
Who Will Win: Red Wolf
No Chance: Wonder Woman OR Supergirl
Thought(s): I'd like Ghost Rider to win since I would like to see more of Aaron Paul's version of the character. Red Wolf seemed to have a lot of admirers though, so it'll probably win. That would leave the two lady-led superhero efforts on the outside looking in since I think they'll end up splitting votes due to their surface similarities.
BEST ENSEMBLE CAST
Who Should Win: Rodeo
Who Will Win: Odysseus - Part One
No Chance: Golden Girl
Thought(s): I loved every casting choice in Rodeo so it should win. Odysseus has a lot of characters, which might help its chances, plus it's a big budget period piece. Twisted Metal makes for an interesting dark horse. Golden Girl has no chance in my mind though since this category is its only nomination.
BEST STARRING COUPLE
Who Should Win: Glenn Howerton & Rachel McAdams - Pontiac
Who Will Win: Colin Farrell & Paul Giamatti - Whaling OR Tom Cruise & Kate Mara - Rodeo
No Chance: Bradley Cooper & Anya Taylor-Joy - Wolf
Thought(s): I'd like to see Howerton and McAdams win for Pontiac. I thought their chemistry as siblings was great. Howerton not securing an individual nomination might hurt their chances though. The odds probably work in the favor of Rodeo and Whaling's couples since they are all nominated for individual awards as well.
BEST VILLAIN
Who Should Win: Richard Brake - Twisted Metal
Who Will Win: Billy Bob Thornton - Red Wolf
No Chance: Madison Iseman - Maledicta
Thought(s): I was sure Brake was going to get a double nomination in this category for Twisted Metal and Ghost Rider, so he might as well win for the one. Billy Bob has a lot more name recognition though so he'd be a safe bet to win (plus he was quite good in Red Wolf).
BEST ADAPTATION
Who Should Win: Wolf
Who Will Win: Run For Your Life
No Chance: Odysseus - Part One
Thought(s):Horne has developed a reputation for taking forgotten or little-seen concepts/films and reinventing them in ways clearly only he can (Wish You Were Here, Poison Ivy). He did the same thing with Wolf. That said, Chad did something similar with Run For Your Life and we all know the voters love him.
BEST ORIGINAL STORY
Who Should Win: Rodeo
Who Will Win: Rodeo
No Chance: Pontiac
Thought(s): I think The Void and Whaling have a chance to beat Rodeo, but Rodeo has my vote and my bet since it came out at the exact right time to linger with voters a bit more than the other candidates.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Who Should Win: Maggie Gyllenhaal - The Void
Who Will Win: Jessica Chastain - Odysseus - Part One
No Chance: Madison Iseman - Whaling
Thought(s): Iseman's nomination is an indication at just how weak this category is this season. I literally remember nothing about her character in Whaling. I guess she's this season's Emma Roberts.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Who Should Win: Stacy Keach - Rodeo
Who Will Win: Colin Farrell - Whaling
No Chance: Jason Mantzoukas - Pontiac
Thought(s): As much as I liked Mantzoukas in Pontiac, I don't see him winning here do to the comedic nature of his role. It would be great if Keach won even though he only has one (powerful) scene in Rodeo. Farrell has the star power plus a lot of screentime, so he'll probably win though.
BEST ACTRESS
Who Should Win: Rachel McAdams - Pontiac
Who Will Win: Kate Mara - Rodeo
No Chance: Florence Pugh - Run For Your Life
Thought(s): For once Pugh has low chances at winning this award. Rodeo has a lot of momentum, so Mara probably has the best shot at winning, but McAdams felt perfectly cast and imperfectly human in Pontiac so I think she deserves it most.
BEST ACTOR
Who Should Win: Josh Brolin - The Void
Who Will Win: Tom Cruise - Rodeo
No Chance: Taylor Kitsch - Knievel
Thought(s): I feel like it is really between Brolin and Cruise for this one. Brolin carries The Void on his shoulders, while one could argue Cruise doesn't even give the best performance in Rodeo. So Brolin should win, but I think Cruise probably will.
BEST DIRECTOR
Who Should Win: Taylor Sheridan - Rodeo
Who Will Win: Jeff Nichols - The Void
No Chance: Edgar Wright - Run For Your Life
Thought(s): As the only director of a film not nominated for Best Picture, Edgar Wright has exactly zero chance of winning this one. While Rodeo might feel too on the nose to be directed by someone with the interests of Sheridan, I'd be lying if I said the film didn't fit his style perfectly. Nichols, though, has become something of an LRF superstar thanks to his direction of John Malone's Superman series, which gives him a lot of clout here.
BEST PICTURE
Who Should Win: Rodeo
Who Will Win: Rodeo
No Chance: Wolf
Thought(s):This is a three-film race between Rodeo, The Void and Whaling. Rodeo was my favorite film of the year, but The Void was right behind it (Whaling was a little further down my list due to my problems with its ending). Whaling also may simply be too low-key to take him Best Picture.
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