The Storylines:
Well, as the great Dinah Washington would say, what a difference a
As for those two movies, that appears to be the major storyline of this ceremony: Natural Selection or Monaco? Both Chad Taylor films were highly regarded but play to different strengths. Natural Selection is built on the back of its starring trio, most of whom are likely favorites in their respective categories. Monaco, on the other hand, is a true ensemble amongst its star-studded cast. This will likely hurt its chances at any individual acting awards but don't be surprised if Monaco sneaks through a Best Picture win after staying quiet most of the night.
One thing that bonds the two of films is another major storyline of this ceremony: octogenarians. Natural Selection marked the heralded return of star Warren Beatty (85 years old) and director Paul Verhoeven (84). Meanwhile, Moncao was led by Hollywood mainstay Martin Scorsese, who just turned 80 a couple of days ago. In some ways, this gives this ceremony a bit of a celebratory feel - especially as Scorsese goes against the likes of Paul Thomas Anderson, an acolyte of his work. Although they were not nominated (more on that later), the celebrated appearances of Fred Williamson and Christopher Lloyd (both 84) in superhero films only solidifies this season as one that celebrates an older generation of Hollywood.
While the categories of Best Picture and Director might have a few favorites, the acting field feels like one of the most unpredictable we've ever had. Let's start up top. Best Actress might have the closest thing to a favorite but only because this usually star-studded field is a bit more anonymous this year. Angelina Jolie is a bonafide Hollywood star but the rest of her fellow nominees are either international superstars (Tang Wei) or young actresses on the way up (Sadie Sink and Jenna Ortega). Best Actor has a bit more star power, led up top by Beatty, but is also has a few interesting sub-plots that we'll get into later. Best Supporting Actress might have The Big One's best chance at a win with Amy Adams but she's joined by three blondes who all are well-respected in the industry.
And finally Best Supporting Actor, where the full scope of what counts as "supporting" can truly be felt. J.K. Simmons has what feels the most traditional supporting part as Andrew Garfield's mentor in Shoe Dog. Jared Leto and Michael Fassbender are essentially headlining stars of their respective films, in both cases feeling like the odd man out of how these things are determined. In fact, there are some murmurs on the internet of category fraud (i.e. how is Isaac any more leading than Fassbender?). Will that help them or hurt them? It's hard to say. And then there is Woody Harrelson, who was completely absent from the Everything Will Be Alright's marketing materials and doesn't show up into 2/3 of the way through the film's runtime. At the Oscars, this has not necessarily been detrimental as the likes of Judi Dench, Anthony Hopkins, and Mahershala Ali have all won with small-but-impactful supporting turns but that type of phenomenon is not as common for the GRAs. For all of these reasons combined, this sit he category that I will be watching the closest personally.
The Surprises & Snubs:
Snub: Best Supporting Actor - I know that I just gushed about the different layers to this category. But what is perhaps most surprising is that you could've conceivably had four totally different nominees and all would've been worthy. That goes to show just how stacked this category this season.
Surprise: Everything Will Be Alright - This film got plenty of love in this edition of the GRAs with a total of 7 nominations, tied for third most. However, that made for one of the most surprising developments of the ceremony as it is extremely rare for a film to be nominated in all four acting categories and Best Original Story without being nominated for Best Picture.
Snub: Red Sonja: Blood + Bone - It is always an uphill battle for genre films like this to find a footing at awards shows but it was genuinely surprising to see this completely left out of some of the below-the-line categories considering its late-season release and positive reception.
Surprise: Rachel Weisz - On the topic of category fraud for Monaco, did Chad Taylor make a misstep by submitting Weisz for Best Actress than Supporting Actress, in which she would've had a much better shot at a nomination?
Snub: Chloe Zhao - Queen Margot is one of those films that comes along and only gets nominated in the writing category. But if it could've gotten recognition anywhere else, I think Zhao would've made for a logical choice as her direction was arguably the strongest element of the film's production.
Surprise: Leonardo DiCaprio - While the team behind E.P. can be proud of its nominations in Ensemble, Supporting Actress, and Director, this only marks the second time in Leo's LRF career that he was not nominated for Best Actor - the other being Golden Girl. Is the shine starting to wear off a bit?
Previous Winners:
J.K. Simmons - Simmons returns to the Best Supporting Actor category that he's won in before for The Price of Fame in Season 4.
Amy Adams - This marks three straight GRA nominations for Adams in her four appearances at LRF. The only film she was not individually nominated for was The Raven in the Night way back in Season 1, when there was only three nominees per category. She won Best Supporting Actress in Season 7 for Revolution.
Paul Thomas Anderson - Like Adams, PTA is now 3-for-4 in being nominated for his LRF work. Also like Adams, he last won the Best Director award in Season 7 for eventual Best Picture winner The Squared Circle.
Previous Nominees:
Martin Scorsese - The overlap continues as Marty has also now had four films at LRF and his first was The Raven in the Night. He has been nominated for Best Director once before, for Season 20's Sinatra.
Andrew Garfield - Could third time be the charm for Andrew? He's been nominated twice for Best Actor, in Season 3 for American Playboy and Season 6 for Standing Back.
Sadie Sink - It has been quite the upward trajectory for the 'Stranger Things' star after her making her live-action debut in Season 14's Red Sonja, being a part of the award-winning ensemble of Born in Brooklyn, and being nominated for Best Actress in Season 18's Tumor.
Wyatt Allen - After his debut in Season 19, Wyatt has kept a steady one-film-per-season pace and, after two Original Story nominations, has a chance to win his first writing award in the Adaptation category where he’s likely the favorite.
Amanda Seyfried - She is no stranger to the GRAs but it sure has been a while. She received praise for her parts in the Ben Collins films Siren and The Creature, last being nominated for Best Supporting Actress in Season 4.
Kirsten Dunst - This marks Dunst's first time in the Supporting Actress category, although she did get nominated for Black Dublin back in Season 9. Don't be surprised to see her snapped at this GRAs with the director of that film Sofia Coppola.
Woody Harrelson - Believe it or not, Woody has been nominated for GRA before but you may surprised to remember that it was for Splinter Cell: Double Agent in Season 8.
Jared Leto - How else could I end this than with another mention of one of LRF's early seasons? Leto is now a two-time nominee after previously being nominated for his turn as Andy Warhol in Femme Fatale from Season 3.
The Newcomers:
Oscar Isaac - FINALLY. After 16 appearances dating back to Season 1, Oscar Isaac gets his first nomination in one of the main four acting categories.
Michael Fassbender - And isn't this quite something given their rivalry in the movie! After eleven films at the studio, this is also Fassbender's first nomination.
Angelina Jolie, Warren Beatty, and Paul Verhoeven - Outside of Leto, this Natural Selection trio are all making their first GRA appearances.
Sienna Miller - Another actress that has been around since Season 1, this is Miller's first individual acting nomination although she was a part of the GRA-winning ensemble of Maple Leaf in Season 8.
Sofia Coppola - She has steadily been getting more work at LRF and this marks her first time being nominated for Best Director.
Tang Wei and Jenna Ortega - Both of these Best Actress nominees have landed a prestigious achievement in their first roles for the studio.
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